S&P 500 Rejects SpaceX, Blocks OpenAI and Anthropic

The AI IPO Boom Meets the S&P 500’s Wall

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are hurtling toward public markets with eye‑popping valuations that rival the biggest names in the S&P 500. SpaceX is aiming for $1.75 trillion. Anthropic commands nearly $1 trillion. OpenAI isn’t far behind at $852 billion. But all three share the same uncomfortable truth: none of them can join the index that defines American large‑cap stocks.

The S&P 500’s rulebook is unforgiving. A company must have traded on a major exchange for at least 12 months and must have reported four consecutive quarters of positive earnings—real, as‑reported profit—not adjusted numbers. Those criteria, built after the dot‑com bubble burst, are keeping the biggest AI winners on the sidelines. And for the tens of millions of Americans whose retirement accounts ride on S&P 500 index funds, the coming IPO avalanche will simply pass them by.

The table above, drawn from the latest filings, shows the gap between ambition and eligibility. SpaceX, the only one of the three that has filed public financials, posted a $4.3 billion loss in just the first three months of 2026. Anthropic and OpenAI are still privately held, which means they haven’t even started the clock on the 12‑month public‑trading requirement.

As we noted in our analysis of whether the stock market can swallow three mega‑IPOs, the sheer size of these deals will reshape indexes—but not the S&P 500, at least not for years.

The S&P 500’s Strict Requirements: A Dot‑Com Era Legacy

The index exclusion criteria that block SpaceX are not new. After the 2000 dot‑com crash, the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee tightened the rules to prevent speculative, unprofitable companies from entering the benchmark. The hurdle: 12 months of public trading and four straight quarters of positive as‑reported earnings per share.

Critics argue the rule is outdated in an economy where tech firms often pour billions into research before turning a profit. Yet the committee has shown no appetite for changing it quickly. Any adjustment would require careful debate—and would likely face pushback from institutional investors who prize the S&P 500’s earnings quality.

For these AI giants, the bar is especially high. Even after an IPO, they would need a full year of public trading history and, more importantly, a stretch of genuine profitability. Given their massive spending on infrastructure, that timeline looks long. This is the core of what industry insiders mean when they talk about S&P 500 eligibility in a post‑AI boom world.

SpaceX’s $4.3 Billion Loss: A Clear Obstacle

SpaceX remains primarily a rockets‑and‑satellites company, but its losses are increasingly tied to artificial intelligence. The company disclosed a $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026, blaming heavy spending on AI and related ventures. For context, that’s more than the annual revenue of many S&P 500 members.

Even after its hotly anticipated June IPO, SpaceX cannot simply leap into the index. The one‑year public‑trading rule means it would be at least mid‑2027 before it could be considered—and that’s only if it strings together four consecutive profitable quarters right away. In a capital‑intensive business where profitability can swing wildly, that’s a tall order.

S&P 500 rejects SpaceX not as a judgment on its value but as a mechanical consequence of rules that prioritize profitability. The index doesn’t care about moonshot potential; it cares about current, reported earnings.

OpenAI and Anthropic: Private Giants Without a Track Record

OpenAI and Anthropic are even farther from the finish line. Both remain private, so the 12‑month clock hasn’t started. Anthropic filed its confidential IPO paperwork this month and is expected to go public as early as fall 2026. OpenAI may follow later this year. But going public is only the first step.

Financial data for both companies is scarce. Anthropic raised $65 billion just days ago, lifting its post‑money valuation to $965 billion. OpenAI’s last funding round in March pegged its valuation at $852 billion. Those numbers put them in the same league as Apple and Microsoft—but with a fraction of the earnings history.

Industry reports suggest Anthropic may not break even until 2028. OpenAI is on a similar trajectory. Once they list, they’ll likely need at least a full year of public trading and then several quarters of consistent profitability before the S&P 500 committee even glances at them. For now, any talk of OpenAI S&P 500 or Anthropic S&P 500 inclusion is premature.

Figure 1 (the chart below) underscores the mismatch: stratospheric valuations, with no public earnings record to back them up.

Public Sentiment and Regulatory Pressure

The idea of bending the rules for AI giants is not popular. Only 18 percent of Americans ages 14 to 29 feel hopeful about AI, down from 27 percent in 2025, according to a Gallup survey this April. Meanwhile, an Economist/YouGov poll found more than 70 percent of Americans believe AI is developing too quickly, with 79 percent of seniors agreeing.

In that climate, any attempt to relax index exclusion criteria for the benefit of three money‑burning tech firms would be politically charged. Index fund managers and retirement plan overseers would likely protest, arguing that the S&P 500’s profitability rule protects everyday investors from speculative mania.

The S&P 500’s committee is famously conservative. Barring a dramatic shift in its governance, it won’t rewrite the rules just because a few trillion‑dollar companies want in.

Implications for the IPO Market

The exclusion of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic from the S&P 500 doesn’t mean they’ll be absent from all indexes. Total‑market funds like those following the Russell 3000 or the Wilshire 5000 will scoop them up immediately. But the bulk of index‑tracking money—around $7 trillion in assets linked to the S&P 500—will remain untouched.

For the IPO market, this creates an odd dynamic. The three deals could collectively raise hundreds of billions of dollars, setting records, yet their stocks won’t benefit from the mechanical buying that comes with S&P 500 inclusion. That might temper demand from investors who chase the index’s seal of approval.

Still, these companies are not hurting for capital. As our earlier look at the stock market’s capacity detailed, institutional appetite for pure AI plays remains enormous. The S&P 500’s cold shoulder is a footnote—for now.

Conclusion

The S&P 500’s eligibility rules are working exactly as designed: they keep unprofitable, freshly public companies out of the world’s most‑watched stock index. SpaceX’s $4.3 billion quarterly loss and the private status of OpenAI and Anthropic make them ineligible today—and likely for years to come.

Even if the IPO pipeline proceeds as planned, investors who track the S&P 500 won’t own a share of these AI pioneers through their core index funds. That’s a purposeful feature, not a bug. The index committee has shown no intent to loosen the profitability requirement, and public sentiment isn’t pushing for it.

For anyone watching the AI revolution from the sidelines, it’s worth remembering that the most exciting companies aren’t always the ones allowed into the most important index. The rules guard against speculation, even when the speculation looks justified in hindsight. SpaceX’s rejection is a reminder that market benchmarks are built on earnings today—not on promises of tomorrow.